Elections of 2013 will bring in Pakistan a change or not, it depends on many factors, the changed behavior of the voters, the role of Army and intelligence agencies, the role of horse traders and buyers of voters and law and order situation in many sensitive areas of Pakistan.
Three major parties are in the battle ground and there will be a tough competition in three of them. These three major parties are Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), Pakistan People’s Party and Pakistan Tehrik e Insaaf. The People’sParty has its vote bank in Sindh and Punjab and to some extent in Balochistan, but due to its poor performance in the government its graph has drastically come down and there are very bleak chances that it will get a prominent position in the forthcoming polls. Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz group) has been maneuvering for last many months to make some good alliances with Sindhi Nationalist and other main stream parties including Pakistan Muslim League (Functional) and according to recent news, it has made an alliance with PML-functional and some other parties in Sindh. It has also made alliance with Maulana Fazalur Rehman which shows that everything is fair in politics of Pakistan. As far as Pakistan Tehrik e Insaf is concerned. It made a good impression by attacting the large crowds in its earlier public meetings and also by marching towards South Waziristan, moreoever people were also impressed by the fair and straightforward personality of its Patron Imran Khan but there are some allegations that it has gathered the politicians around it which have been expelled from other parties and which cannotguarantee the new revolution, but in spite of all these objections, PTI has still the chances of attracting the people at a larger scale.
PTI is very much popular in KyberPakhtunKhwa and also in cities of Punjab. There are total 34 seats in KPK and PTI can grab most of the seats from that chunk. PTI can be the largest party in KPK.
Who will rule Pakistan depends on who will take more seats from Punjab and have majority in one other province. The party who takes more than 50 seats from Rawalpindi to Lahore is expected to win the elections. The share of PPP and Q league will be lesser in this area. PTI needs to make a dent in Karachi and Hyderabad also to win the elections. If it gets more than 5 seats in that area it will be a great success for PTI. But overall in my opinion there will be a split mandate and the competition will be tough between PTI and N-League and they will play close to each other having almost 50 50 share. But if PTI sweeps clean the KPK region, Punjab and Karachi then it is expected to rule.
Overall it is being foreseen that anything can happen in these elections, silent vote will decide the ultimate winner so predictions can be reversed but PTI has a very crucial and decisive role in these elections this cannot be denied.